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Reprinted with permission from
The Courier=Times Online
From staff and wire reports
Person County’s population will increase by almost 35 percent during the next 25 years.
By 2030, the number of high school age children here will be nearly 78 percent greater than it was in 2000, while the number of Personians age 65 and older will have more than doubled.
The county’s overall population growth, however, will result mainly from people moving into the county rather than from natural population growth.
These are among the latest projections for Person County issued by the U. S. Census Bureau as part of the latest population growth estimates for North Carolina released by the bureau this month.
According to the projections, Person County, whose population stood at 35,623 as of April 2000, will hit 38,118 by July of this year and then increase steadily over the next quarter century to 51,307 by April of 2030.
That would represent an overall gain of 44 percent from 2000, and an increase over the next 25 years of 34.6 percent.
At the same time, North Carolina’s population is expected to grow by 43 percent, to nearly 12.5 million. That would represent an increase of nearly 55 percent since 2000, when the census placed the state’s population at slightly more than eight million.
The county’s population is expected to grow the next five years to 40,821 by 2010 and then rise another 13.1 percent during the next decade, hitting 46,188 by 2020. Close to 78 percent of that population gain is projected to result from in-migration while the remainder is expected to be attributable to natural growth, or the net number of births exceeding deaths during the period.
Similarly, that trend is expected to continue for the county during the following decade as well, from 2020 to 2030, when, the projections show, Person County should gain an additional 5,119 people 4,019 from in-migration and 1,100 via natural growth.
The county’s population will continue to age during the next quarter century as well.
By 2030, the median age of Personians will be 42.29 years, more than four years higher than it was at the time of the 2000 census, which was 38.01.
The median age of Personians will continue to be higher than that for the state as a whole. The median age for North Carolina in 2000 was 35.3; it is expected to rise to 38.1 by 2030.
According to the projections, by 2030 the number of Personians ages 65 to 84 will be at 9,633, which would represent a 120 percent increase from the 4,376 recorded in Census 2000.
Similarly, the number of Personians age 85 and older is projected to hit 1,178 by 2030, up 129 percent, from 514 in 2000.
Population growth among younger Personians, understandably, will affect enrollment in Person County Schools, but the major pressure apparently will be felt at the high school level, if the projections pan out.
The Census Bureau forecasts the number of high-school age (14-17) children in Person County soaring to 2,533 by 2030, a gain of 77.5 percent from 1,427 in 2000. That would be a faster growth rate for that age group than is expected to occur statewide. North Carolina’s high school age population is projected to rise 53 percent during the same period.
Person County’s growth rate among younger students, however, would trail the state projections at every level.
Whereas the population of potential kindergarten (age 5) students is projected to grow 50 percent from the 2000 census by 2030, that age group is seen growing by only 37 percent in percent over the same period.
Also for the period, the projections show the state’s elementary school population (ages 6-13) growing almost 42 percent by 2030, that population in Person County is anticipated to grow by just 22 percent.
The college-age population (ages 18-24) in North Carolina will be up 48.2 percent from Census 2000 by 2030, whereas that age group in Person County should experience a gain of 39.3 percent, according to the projections.
North Carolina's 35-year boom will continue for at least another 25 years, with the state's population estimated to grow 52 percent to 12.2 million by 2030, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau projections North Carolina and its Southeast neighbors are projected to be the most dynamic part of the country in the next quarter-century, and the South overall a region stretching from Delaware and Florida to Texas is expected to be home to nearly four out of 10 Americans by 2030.
“North Carolina, compared to some states, has been extremely blessed. We have been growing steadily. We've had constant growth since 1970. We haven't had a single year in which we've lost population,” said state demographer William Tillman, who works in the Office of State Budget and Management.
He noted that growth in North Carolina's urban centers likely will be accompanied by continued population decreases in poorer, rural parts of the state.
Growth is also expected to give North Carolina added political weight. If the bureau's national projections play out as expected, North Carolina would have an additional two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2030 census 15, up from the current 13.
If North Carolina and other states grow and shrink as the Census Bureau expects, North Carolina would have the nation's seventh-highest population among states by 2030, up from 11th in 2000. Michigan and New Jersey are projected to drop out of the top 10.
California and Texas would continue to rank as the top two states in population in 2030, followed by Florida. Those three states are each projected to gain more than 12 million people between 2000 and 2030.
Meanwhile, Arizona is expected to add 5.6 million people over the period, followed by North Carolina, with 4.2 million.
In rate of growth, North Carolina is expected to trail only Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas, Utah and Idaho.
In Buncombe County, where the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains is already drawing a flood of new residents, planning director Jon Creighton said the population is expected to grow 70 percent to 314,000 by 2030.
“It will make an incredible difference,” Creighton said. “When you look at the vistas, you're going to see a lot more houses because the valleys are filling up.”
The county already is spending heavily to expand roads and schools in anticipation of the newcomers, Creighton said, hoping to give communities time to grow sensibly.
Census projections also show North Carolina remaining among the youngest states in the years ahead.
Children made up 24.4 percent of the state's population, or 1.94 million, in 2000, with migration and births expected to increase the youth population to 3.08 million by 2030. That would make children a little more than 25 percent of the population.
At the other end of the aging spectrum, North Carolina is among 26 states projected to double their 65-and-older population between 2000 and 2030.
By 2030, 17.8 percent of the state' residents, or nearly 2.2 million people, are expected to be 65 and older up from 969,000 and 12 percent of the population in 2000.
The Census Bureau said its projections use a mathematical model to extrapolate what will happen if current state-specific trends in fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration continue. They were developed for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age and sex for the years 2000 to 2030, using results from Census 2000.
On the Web
North Carolina State Demographics: http://demog.state.nc.us/